In this episode of Truth About FX, Walter digs in the idea about how your intuition as a trader – and as a human being – affects your trading decisions. He also gives a brief on this interesting book that can help you understand the role of intuition. And did you know there is a way to track your intuition and probabilities – if you get really good at it. All this and more in this episode…
Download (Duration: 03:56 / 9.4 MB)
In This Episode:
00:58 – what people should know
01:45 – remote viewing program
02:52 – track it first
03:23 – beginner’s intuition
Announcer: Sometimes, forex trading is a wild and wooly place to be. That’s why Hugh is here, to post your questions to Walter, the naked forex guy. Hugh’s got questions and Walter’s got the answers. Here at the Truth About FX Podcast.
Hugh: Hi, Walter. How much should intuition affect into your trading decision?
Walter: It depends on how good your intuition is.
Hugh: I guess so.
Walter: I mean, there are some interesting things out there about people who use things like remote viewing and intuition. There was a book that I can post in the show notes for you guys.
They basically just interviewed traders – experienced traders – and they talked about the role of intuition. It’s kind of an interesting little, tiny book but it was quite interesting and I thought these are some things that people should know — and I don’t know very many people that talked about that book. I’ll post that in the show notes for you guys if you’re interested in that.
I think the big deal here, the big takeaway, would be to do this. Find out how good your intuition is simply by tracking it. In your trading journal, you can just track and say like you can take the trade, put everything in there, “My Stop, My Target” all these stuff and then you have another column where it says, “In a scale of 1 to 10, my feeling about this trade is a 9” or a 4 or whatever it is.
And then over time you can see now, “Is it true that the ones that I think that are really really good trades most likely will work out are the ones that actually worked out? Is that true or not?” that is a great way to go about it because now you can track it.
In the remote viewing program in the military, this is what they did. I think it was actually in the CIA. That’s what they do. They would track and see how well these remote viewers are and based on their hit rates, they could assign confidence level to different remote viewers and things like that.
You can do the same thing with your trading. That is another thing, there are some different ways that you can use say, deep bubbles of meditation as well, some people will use that to try and figure out what is going on.
The interesting thing about trading is you don’t necessarily have to know where the market is going to make money when the market goes there. It sounds counterintuitive specially if you’re new to trading. You’ll think you must have to predict the market to make money.
In that note, really it’s more about probabilities. It’s like, “If it goes here, then maybe it’s going to go here. If it goes down to this price, maybe it’s going to further down and if it goes up to this price, maybe it’s going to go further up”. So, you don’t really need to predict the markets to make money from them but I understand why people talk about it.
So I would just encourage you to probably just track it first and then see how good it is. Typically, the typical trader, has a really poor intuition when they first start trading and then later on it gets really good.
That is why they told the Turtles, if you have two trades and you’re going to be fully loaded on the next trades, you have all the trades that you can possibly take and there is one more signal but — there’s two signals but there’s only one more slot — always go with the trade that you think is least likely to work out because they knew that. They understood that the intuition that you had in the beginning is quite bad so that’s why they said that. That’s what I would do. I’ll just track it and then figure it out how well you’ll go.
Hugh: Okay, cool. That makes a lot of sense. Thanks, Walter.
Walter: Thank you.